URL | electoralcalculus.co.uk |
---|---|
Commercial? | No |
Registration | No |
Available language(s) | English |
Owner | Martin Baxter |
Current status | Online |
Electoral Calculus is a psephological web site which attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It was developed by Martin Baxter and employs scientific techniques on data about Britain's electoral geography.[1]
It has been cited by journalists Andrew Rawnsley and Michael White in The Guardian, with reference to the 2010 United Kingdom general election.[2][3]
The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has a separate section for elections in Scotland.
The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model, which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects.[4] The Strong Transition Model was introduced in October 2007, and considers the effects of strong and weak supporters.[5]
The models are explained in detail on the web site.