Electoral Calculus

Electoral Calculus
URL electoralcalculus.co.uk
Commercial? No
Registration No
Available language(s) English
Owner Martin Baxter
Current status Online

Electoral Calculus is a psephological web site which attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It was developed by Martin Baxter and employs scientific techniques on data about Britain's electoral geography.[1]

It has been cited by journalists Andrew Rawnsley and Michael White in The Guardian, with reference to the 2010 United Kingdom general election.[2][3]

Main features

The site includes maps, predictions and analysis articles. It has a separate section for elections in Scotland.

Methodology

The calculations were initially based on what is termed the Transition Model, which is derived from the additive uniform national swing model. This uses national swings in a proportional manner to predict local effects.[4] The Strong Transition Model was introduced in October 2007, and considers the effects of strong and weak supporters.[5]

The models are explained in detail on the web site.

References

  1. ^ "Electoral Calculus". Intute. http://www.intute.ac.uk/cgi-bin/fullrecord.pl?handle=20100408-11403823. Retrieved 17 October 2011. "An independent UK election prediction site maintained by Martin Baxter. He attempts to apply scientific techniques to the electoral geography of Britain to predict the future general election results." 
  2. ^ Rawnsley, Andrew (22 November 2009). "Why it's very likely the next parliament will be doubly hung". The Guardian (London). http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/nov/22/andrew-rawnsley-general-election-hung-parliament. Retrieved 17 October 2011. "The different formulas used by Electoral Calculus and Swingo both translate a six-point Tory poll lead into a Commons in which the Conservatives are short of a majority." 
  3. ^ White, Michael (30 April 2010). "Tony Blair's back. But it's too late for Labour". The Guardian (London). http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2010/apr/30/tony-blair-labour-cleggmania-michael-white. Retrieved 17 October 2011. "How is Cameron 'winning' when Tory share of the vote is – on current measure – about 1% to 1.5% up on 2005 (source Electoral Calculus)?" 
  4. ^ Baxter, Martin (8 July 2004). "Transition Model". Electoral Calculus. http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newmodel.html. Retrieved 17 October 2011. 
  5. ^ Baxter, Martin (28 October 2007). "Strong Transition Model". Electoral Calculus. http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/strongmodel.html. Retrieved 17 October 2011.